Latest news with #interest rate hike
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Japan's deepening political woes cloud budget, rate hike timing
By Takaya Yamaguchi and Leika Kihara TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's deepening political uncertainty risks prolonging policy paralysis that could affect the drafting of next year's budget and the timing of the central bank's next interest rate hike, analysts say, clouding the outlook for the fragile economy. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing increased calls from within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to step down and take responsibility for the party's huge defeat in an upper house election in July and a lower house poll last year. While Ishiba has denied he has any plans to resign, his fading support has triggered inevitable questions about his political future and analysts say a leadership change would likely have implications for the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy. In a meeting on Friday, lawmakers decided to consider holding a rare leadership race even with the party head Ishiba still presiding. Under LDP rules, such a race would take place if the majority of the party's lawmakers and regional heads agreed to hold one. But it is uncertain how long it would take for the party to decide, according to lawmakers and government officials familiar with the procedure told Reuters. That contest could happen in September at the earliest, they say, which would allow the new administration to compile a spending package to cushion the economic blow from U.S. tariffs. But if the race does not take place in September, it may have to wait until early next year to avoid disrupting the government's drafting of next fiscal year's budget, they say. "We would not be surprised if the LDP calls for a leadership election in September," UBS analysts said in a research note. "It seems that uncertainties regarding politics are unlikely to resolve soon." In Japan, the Ministry of Finance collects spending requests from ministries in August and finalises the government's draft budget in late December. The budget must pass parliament in time to take effect from the April start of a new fiscal year. Failure to pass the budget through parliament would force the government to compile a stop-gap budget, which could hurt the economy by causing delays in expenditure. Some ruling party lawmakers say there is no choice but for Ishiba to step down to resolve the deadlock. Having lost control in both houses of parliament, the LDP-led ruling coalition needs opposition party support to pass legislation and budget through parliament. Opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition unless Ishiba steps down. "Japan needs a stable coalition government. Otherwise, it's impossible to pursue consistent policies," LDP heavyweight Ken Saito told Reuters last week. "It's best for the LDP to seek a coalition partner under a new leader." COMPLICATION FOR BOJ Ishiba's weak political standing and prolonged political uncertainty also complicate the Bank of Japan's decision on how soon to resume interest rate hikes. While few analysts expect the BOJ to hike rates at its next policy meeting in September, some see a good chance of action in October, December or January next year when more data becomes available on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy. Known as a fiscal hawk, Ishiba has endorsed the central bank's efforts to gradually wean the economy off a decade-long, massive stimulus as inflation remains above its 2% target for well over three years. But his bitter election defeat has made his administration vulnerable to calls for big spending and loose monetary policy. Many opposition parties have urged the BOJ to hold off, or go slow, in raising rates and focus on supporting the economy. If the LDP were to hold a leadership race, the event could put the spotlight on the views of candidates like Sanae Takaichi, a reflationist-minded lawmaker who in the past blasted the idea of interest rate hikes as "stupid." All this could discourage the BOJ from raising rates in coming months to avoid drawing unwanted political attention. "All we can say is that we would continue to take appropriate policies to sustainably and stably achieve our 2% inflation target," Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing earlier this month, when asked how the BOJ would respond if political changes lead to fresh demands on monetary policy. "It's impossible to predict how politics will unfold, which means for the BOJ it's best to take a wait-and-see stance," said a source familiar with the bank's thinking. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Japan's deepening political woes cloud budget, rate hike timing
By Takaya Yamaguchi and Leika Kihara TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's deepening political uncertainty risks prolonging policy paralysis that could affect the drafting of next year's budget and the timing of the central bank's next interest rate hike, analysts say, clouding the outlook for the fragile economy. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing increased calls from within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to step down and take responsibility for the party's huge defeat in an upper house election in July and a lower house poll last year. While Ishiba has denied he has any plans to resign, his fading support has triggered inevitable questions about his political future and analysts say a leadership change would likely have implications for the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy. In a meeting on Friday, lawmakers decided to consider holding a rare leadership race even with the party head Ishiba still presiding. Under LDP rules, such a race would take place if the majority of the party's lawmakers and regional heads agreed to hold one. But it is uncertain how long it would take for the party to decide, according to lawmakers and government officials familiar with the procedure told Reuters. That contest could happen in September at the earliest, they say, which would allow the new administration to compile a spending package to cushion the economic blow from U.S. tariffs. But if the race does not take place in September, it may have to wait until early next year to avoid disrupting the government's drafting of next fiscal year's budget, they say. "We would not be surprised if the LDP calls for a leadership election in September," UBS analysts said in a research note. "It seems that uncertainties regarding politics are unlikely to resolve soon." In Japan, the Ministry of Finance collects spending requests from ministries in August and finalises the government's draft budget in late December. The budget must pass parliament in time to take effect from the April start of a new fiscal year. Failure to pass the budget through parliament would force the government to compile a stop-gap budget, which could hurt the economy by causing delays in expenditure. Some ruling party lawmakers say there is no choice but for Ishiba to step down to resolve the deadlock. Having lost control in both houses of parliament, the LDP-led ruling coalition needs opposition party support to pass legislation and budget through parliament. Opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition unless Ishiba steps down. "Japan needs a stable coalition government. Otherwise, it's impossible to pursue consistent policies," LDP heavyweight Ken Saito told Reuters last week. "It's best for the LDP to seek a coalition partner under a new leader." COMPLICATION FOR BOJ Ishiba's weak political standing and prolonged political uncertainty also complicate the Bank of Japan's decision on how soon to resume interest rate hikes. While few analysts expect the BOJ to hike rates at its next policy meeting in September, some see a good chance of action in October, December or January next year when more data becomes available on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy. Known as a fiscal hawk, Ishiba has endorsed the central bank's efforts to gradually wean the economy off a decade-long, massive stimulus as inflation remains above its 2% target for well over three years. But his bitter election defeat has made his administration vulnerable to calls for big spending and loose monetary policy. Many opposition parties have urged the BOJ to hold off, or go slow, in raising rates and focus on supporting the economy. If the LDP were to hold a leadership race, the event could put the spotlight on the views of candidates like Sanae Takaichi, a reflationist-minded lawmaker who in the past blasted the idea of interest rate hikes as "stupid." All this could discourage the BOJ from raising rates in coming months to avoid drawing unwanted political attention. "All we can say is that we would continue to take appropriate policies to sustainably and stably achieve our 2% inflation target," Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing earlier this month, when asked how the BOJ would respond if political changes lead to fresh demands on monetary policy. "It's impossible to predict how politics will unfold, which means for the BOJ it's best to take a wait-and-see stance," said a source familiar with the bank's thinking. Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
7 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Japan's deepening political woes cloud budget, rate hike timing
TOKYO, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Japan's deepening political uncertainty risks prolonging policy paralysis that could affect the drafting of next year's budget and the timing of the central bank's next interest rate hike, analysts say, clouding the outlook for the fragile economy. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing increased calls from within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to step down and take responsibility for the party's huge defeat in an upper house election in July and a lower house poll last year. While Ishiba has denied he has any plans to resign, his fading support has triggered inevitable questions about his political future and analysts say a leadership change would likely have implications for the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy. In a meeting on Friday, lawmakers decided to consider holding a rare leadership race even with the party head Ishiba still presiding. Under LDP rules, such a race would take place if the majority of the party's lawmakers and regional heads agreed to hold one. But it is uncertain how long it would take for the party to decide, according to lawmakers and government officials familiar with the procedure told Reuters. That contest could happen in September at the earliest, they say, which would allow the new administration to compile a spending package to cushion the economic blow from U.S. tariffs. But if the race does not take place in September, it may have to wait until early next year to avoid disrupting the government's drafting of next fiscal year's budget, they say. "We would not be surprised if the LDP calls for a leadership election in September," UBS analysts said in a research note. "It seems that uncertainties regarding politics are unlikely to resolve soon." In Japan, the Ministry of Finance collects spending requests from ministries in August and finalises the government's draft budget in late December. The budget must pass parliament in time to take effect from the April start of a new fiscal year. Failure to pass the budget through parliament would force the government to compile a stop-gap budget, which could hurt the economy by causing delays in expenditure. Some ruling party lawmakers say there is no choice but for Ishiba to step down to resolve the deadlock. Having lost control in both houses of parliament, the LDP-led ruling coalition needs opposition party support to pass legislation and budget through parliament. Opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition unless Ishiba steps down. "Japan needs a stable coalition government. Otherwise, it's impossible to pursue consistent policies," LDP heavyweight Ken Saito told Reuters last week. "It's best for the LDP to seek a coalition partner under a new leader." Ishiba's weak political standing and prolonged political uncertainty also complicate the Bank of Japan's decision on how soon to resume interest rate hikes. While few analysts expect the BOJ to hike rates at its next policy meeting in September, some see a good chance of action in October, December or January next year when more data becomes available on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy. Known as a fiscal hawk, Ishiba has endorsed the central bank's efforts to gradually wean the economy off a decade-long, massive stimulus as inflation remains above its 2% target for well over three years. But his bitter election defeat has made his administration vulnerable to calls for big spending and loose monetary policy. Many opposition parties have urged the BOJ to hold off, or go slow, in raising rates and focus on supporting the economy. If the LDP were to hold a leadership race, the event could put the spotlight on the views of candidates like Sanae Takaichi, a reflationist-minded lawmaker who in the past blasted the idea of interest rate hikes as "stupid." All this could discourage the BOJ from raising rates in coming months to avoid drawing unwanted political attention. "All we can say is that we would continue to take appropriate policies to sustainably and stably achieve our 2% inflation target," Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing earlier this month, when asked how the BOJ would respond if political changes lead to fresh demands on monetary policy. "It's impossible to predict how politics will unfold, which means for the BOJ it's best to take a wait-and-see stance," said a source familiar with the bank's thinking.
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Japan's deepening political woes cloud budget, rate hike timing
By Takaya Yamaguchi and Leika Kihara TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's deepening political uncertainty risks prolonging policy paralysis that could affect the drafting of next year's budget and the timing of the central bank's next interest rate hike, analysts say, clouding the outlook for the fragile economy. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing increased calls from within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to step down and take responsibility for the party's huge defeat in an upper house election in July and a lower house poll last year. While Ishiba has denied he has any plans to resign, his fading support has triggered inevitable questions about his political future and analysts say a leadership change would likely have implications for the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy. In a meeting on Friday, lawmakers decided to consider holding a rare leadership race even with the party head Ishiba still presiding. Under LDP rules, such a race would take place if the majority of the party's lawmakers and regional heads agreed to hold one. But it is uncertain how long it would take for the party to decide, according to lawmakers and government officials familiar with the procedure told Reuters. That contest could happen in September at the earliest, they say, which would allow the new administration to compile a spending package to cushion the economic blow from U.S. tariffs. But if the race does not take place in September, it may have to wait until early next year to avoid disrupting the government's drafting of next fiscal year's budget, they say. "We would not be surprised if the LDP calls for a leadership election in September," UBS analysts said in a research note. "It seems that uncertainties regarding politics are unlikely to resolve soon." In Japan, the Ministry of Finance collects spending requests from ministries in August and finalises the government's draft budget in late December. The budget must pass parliament in time to take effect from the April start of a new fiscal year. Failure to pass the budget through parliament would force the government to compile a stop-gap budget, which could hurt the economy by causing delays in expenditure. Some ruling party lawmakers say there is no choice but for Ishiba to step down to resolve the deadlock. Having lost control in both houses of parliament, the LDP-led ruling coalition needs opposition party support to pass legislation and budget through parliament. Opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition unless Ishiba steps down. "Japan needs a stable coalition government. Otherwise, it's impossible to pursue consistent policies," LDP heavyweight Ken Saito told Reuters last week. "It's best for the LDP to seek a coalition partner under a new leader." COMPLICATION FOR BOJ Ishiba's weak political standing and prolonged political uncertainty also complicate the Bank of Japan's decision on how soon to resume interest rate hikes. While few analysts expect the BOJ to hike rates at its next policy meeting in September, some see a good chance of action in October, December or January next year when more data becomes available on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy. Known as a fiscal hawk, Ishiba has endorsed the central bank's efforts to gradually wean the economy off a decade-long, massive stimulus as inflation remains above its 2% target for well over three years. But his bitter election defeat has made his administration vulnerable to calls for big spending and loose monetary policy. Many opposition parties have urged the BOJ to hold off, or go slow, in raising rates and focus on supporting the economy. If the LDP were to hold a leadership race, the event could put the spotlight on the views of candidates like Sanae Takaichi, a reflationist-minded lawmaker who in the past blasted the idea of interest rate hikes as "stupid." All this could discourage the BOJ from raising rates in coming months to avoid drawing unwanted political attention. "All we can say is that we would continue to take appropriate policies to sustainably and stably achieve our 2% inflation target," Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing earlier this month, when asked how the BOJ would respond if political changes lead to fresh demands on monetary policy. "It's impossible to predict how politics will unfold, which means for the BOJ it's best to take a wait-and-see stance," said a source familiar with the bank's thinking.
Japan Times
03-08-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
BOJ watchers bring forward next rate hike call after trade deals
Bank of Japan watchers brought forward their forecast for when they expect the next interest rate hike, after clarity over trade increased with U.S. President Donald Trump announcing deals, including one with Japan. Some 42% of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate the move in October, jumping from 32% in the previous survey. Analyst views were last canvassed before the announcement of Japan's trade pact with the U.S. on July 22, and last week's BOJ policy decision. Those predicting it in January slightly dropped to a third, while those expecting December doubled to 11%. No one foresees action at the next meeting in September as their base case, but in a risk scenario, about a quarter said the hike could come as soon as next month. Some 60% said the next hike could come as early as October. The results show that many BOJ watchers are convinced the next increase in borrowing costs is coming closer, even after Gov. Kazuo Ueda signaled caution on Thursday. Analysts pointed to the fact that the BOJ upgraded its inflation forecasts more than expected and raised its risk balance view as evidence the bank is making progress toward a rate move. "This meeting laid the groundwork for the next hike,' Kento Minami, senior economist at Daiwa Securities, wrote in his survey response. "Considering upside price risks from food and potentially a weak yen, the condition is suited for another move this year once resilience in corporate activity is confirmed.' The BOJ boosted its price projection sharply to 2.7% for this fiscal year from 2.2% in its quarterly outlook report released Thursday. The bank now sees the risk for prices as generally balanced after seeing only downside risks three months ago. Still, the hawkish signals in the report were toned down during Ueda's post-meeting news conference. The governor repeatedly highlighted the fact that though a little less than before, uncertainty remains high, and indicated little urgency toward a hike by saying there's a low risk of falling behind the curve in responding to inflation. Naka Matsuzawa, chief strategist at Nomura Securities, concluded that Ueda's news conference and the BOJ's statements were hawkish overall, partly because it's natural for a central banker to deny the likelihood of falling behind the curve as it's taboo to be in that position. Some 49% of surveyed economists said that Ueda's remarks at his news conference were neutral, while 44% said it was dovish. Only 5% said it was hawkish. The comments led the yen to break a key psychological level of ¥150 per dollar, reaching its weakest point since March on Friday. After yen weakness has played a major role in pushing the BOJ toward a policy shift in the past, analysts say it could happen again this time. Some 44% said the possibility is rising for the yen to become a key factor to nudge the bank toward another hike, while 35% didn't see such an increase. About a fifth said it's hard to tell. "If there's considerable yen depreciation, there's a risk scenario where the BOJ may opt for an earlier rate hike while highlighting upside movements in underlying inflation,' said Takeshi Yamaguchi, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. In addition to still unclear economic pressure from tariffs and a weak yen, many analysts cited political uncertainty as a potential hurdle for the central bank as it navigates monetary policy. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing calls to resign after he faced a historic defeat in the Upper House election on July 20, losing a majority in both houses of parliament for his ruling coalition. Some 71% of the surveyed economists said that there is a risk that Ueda's board won't be able to raise rates this year if Ishiba is replaced by a monetary easing advocate, while 19% said that won't be the case. With Ueda's repeated message that he wants to parse data broadly and carefully before considering the next hike, some BOJ watchers doubt whether the BOJ will have enough data on hand to say another rate change is warranted this year. "It takes time to confirm the impact of tariffs in data, even if the effects end up being smaller than expected,' said Shigeto Nagai, former head of BOJ's international department and currently the head of Oxford Economics in Japan. "It's impossible to raise rates again this year.'
